ASML said on Wednesday that AI-driven demand for its chip-printing tools is so strong that its planned supply will not fully meet customer demand in 2027 or 2028, and it raised its full-year sales outlook. Why it matters: ASML is the bottleneck behind the bottleneck — without its machines, leading chipmakers cannot expand advanced chip production, so its order book is one of the clearest hard signals on how long the AI build-out will last.
October 14, 2026
What happened
The Dutch company reported third-quarter results on October 14 and nudged its 2026 outlook higher. It now expects full-year sales of €44 billion to €45 billion. For the fourth quarter it forecast sales of €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion, with gross margin around 57%.
Third-quarter net sales were €11.66 billion and net income was €4.96 billion, according to reports of the results. Analysts polled by LSEG had expected fourth-quarter sales of about €14.19 billion, so the guidance came in above that mark.
Demand is stretching to 2029 and 2030
Chief executive Christophe Fouquet said customer discussions are increasingly shifting beyond 2027. ASML had already planned to lift capacity by about 30% in 2027 and again by about 30% in 2028. Fouquet said that will still not be enough, and the company is looking at ways to expand further.
Customers are already placing strong order intake for 2028, with some expressing interest in orders for 2029 and even 2030. ASML broke ground last month on a major expansion in Eindhoven, but the first phase is not due until 2029, so the company needs other ways to add capacity before then.
Its customers include TSMC, which makes chips for Nvidia, along with Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron and Intel, among others with expansion plans.
Why it matters
For anyone following the AI infrastructure race, this matters more than another data-centre announcement. Models, agents and apps all depend on a finite supply of advanced chips, and those chips depend on ASML’s extreme ultraviolet lithography machines — a product no other company supplies at this level.
If chipmakers are trying to lock in tool orders for 2029 and 2030, that suggests they expect AI investment to run for years, not quarters. It also means supply, not demand, may set the pace — a point worth remembering the next time a headline claims the AI build-out is either unstoppable or about to collapse.
Frequently asked questions
What did ASML raise its outlook to?
ASML raised its full-year 2026 sales forecast to €44 billion to €45 billion, and guided fourth-quarter sales to €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion with gross margin around 57%.
Why can’t ASML meet AI chip-tool demand in 2027 and 2028?
Even after planned capacity increases of about 30% in each of those years, customer demand forecasts have risen further, driven mainly by expected AI-related investment, the company said.
Who buys ASML’s machines?
Leading chipmakers such as TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron and Intel. TSMC in turn manufactures chips designed by companies including Nvidia.
Sources: Reuters, Euronext / Reuters, Anadolu via EuropeSays